Strong Q4 Not Enough to Lift Mobile Infrastructure Market in 2016

[테크월드=이나리 기자] According to IHS Markit, In Q4 2016, the global macrocell mobile infrastructure market totaled $11 billion, rising 7 percent sequentially, driven by strong activity in a few Asian countries such as India, Myanmar and Vietnam. On a year-over-year basis, the market declined 14 percent, dragged down by all regions—and confirming that the market has entered the post-LTE-peak era.

LTE was somewhat the bright spot, up 6 percent quarter-over-quarter driven by E-UTRAN (evolved UMTS terrestrial radio access networks), but down 16 percent year-over-year. 2G/3G was up 10 percent sequentially, kept alive by W-CDMA (wideband code division multiple access) in Japan.

But none of this was enough to save the year for mobile infrastructure.

Looking at the full-year 2016, worldwide mobile infrastructure revenue totaled $43 billion, falling 10 percent from 2015’s $48 billion and also dragged down by all regions, with China in the driver’s seat. Revenue for the software that goes with 2G, 3G and 4G networks grew just 2 percent in 2016 from 2015, to $15.5 billion, mostly driven by LTE-A (LTE-Advanced) upgrades.

In the battle for market share, Ericsson, Huawei and Nokia nabbed the top three spots in 2016. The Chinese vendors were hit by the decline in China, a market where they are the most exposed.

As of January 30, 2017, 581 total commercial LTE networks have been launched. All indicators point to a year of LTE decline in 2017 as a result of diminishing rollouts worldwide. Moreover, we forecast the LTE market to decline at a CAGR (compound annual growth rate) of -12.4 percent from 2016 to 2021, sinking to $12 billion from its peak of $25.9 billion in 2015.